Talk:2013 TV135

Media coverage

This looks like it could be getting some more attention in the coming days. Looks like the odds of impact are pretty slim though; 1 in 63,000.http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-astronomers-asteroid-earth-20131017,0,7912661.storyCheerioswithmilk (talk) 23:42, 17 October 2013 (UTC)

Given that the nominal distance to the asteroid in August 2032 is currently 1.18 AU from Earth, I expect this asteroid's odds of impact to quickly drop to less than 1 in a million. -- Kheider (talk) 03:57, 18 October 2013 (UTC)

Uncertainty region

• JPL 2: With a short observation arc of 7 days, it had about a 1 in 63,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. (Nominal distance on 26 Aug 2032: 1.18AU)
• JPL 3: With a short observation arc of 9 days, it had about a 1 in 48,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. (Nominal distance: 1.73AU)
• JPL 4: Horizons Nominal = 0.12AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.28AU for August 26, 2032 distance.
• JPL 5: With a short observation arc of 10 days, it had about a 1 in 14,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. (Nominal distance: 0.28AU; closest approach=2032-Jul-31@0.2AU)
• JPL 6: With a short observation arc of 11 days, NEODyS and (JPL 6) showed the Nominal distance as 0.60AU on 26 August 2032. NEODyS peaked at 1:3800.
• JPL 7: With a short observation arc of 12 days, it had about a 1 in 19,000 chance of impacting Earth on August 26, 2032. Horizons Nominal = 0.70AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.65AU. NEODyS PS=−0.86
• JPL 8 (Oct 22): 13 day arc Sentry = 1:16,000 / NEODyS = 1:8,200. Horizons Nominal = 0.70AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.58AU. NEODyS PS=−0.88
• JPL 9 (Oct 23): 14 day arc Sentry = 1:10,000 / NEODyS = 1:5,080. Horizons Nominal = 0.37AU / NEODyS Nominal = 0.35AU. NEODyS PS=−0.65
• JPL 10 (Oct 24): 15 day arc Sentry = 1:11,000 / NEODyS = 1:6,170. Horizons Nominal = 0.41AU (closest approach=2032-Oct-28@0.17AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.39AU. NEODyS PS=−0.74
• JPL 11 (Oct 25): 16 day arc Sentry = 1:21,000 / NEODyS = 1:9,800. Horizons Nominal = 0.55AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-08@0.28AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.53AU (closest approach=2032/10/27@0.16AU). NEODyS PS=−0.95
• JPL 12 (Oct 26): 17 day arc. Horizons Nominal = 0.68AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-15@0.38AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.60AU. NEODyS PS=−1.07
• JPL 13 (Oct 26): 17 day arc Sentry = 1:32,000 / NEODyS = 1:14,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.76AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-19@0.46AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.60AU. NEODyS PS=−1.07
• JPL 14 (Oct 27): 18 day arc Sentry = 1:29,000 / NEODyS = 1:13,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.70AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-16@0.41AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.56AU. NEODyS PS=−1.06
• JPL 16 (Oct 29): 20 day arc NEODyS = 9.42e-5@1:11,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.57AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-09@0.29AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.47AU. NEODyS PS=−0.97.
• JPL 17 (Oct 29): 20 day arc. Horizons Nominal = 0.66AU (closest approach=2032-Nov-14@0.36AU)
• JPL 18 (Oct 30): 21 day arc Sentry = 1:22,000 / NEODyS = 1:6,670. Horizons Nominal = 0.44AU (closest approach=2032-Oct-31@0.19AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.34AU (closest approach=2032/10/22@0.12AU). NEODyS PS=−0.77.
• JPL 20 (Oct 31): 23 day arc Sentry = 1:6,250 / NEODyS = 1:4,330. Horizons Nominal = 0.14AU (closest approach=2032-Sep-19@0.06AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.16AU (closest approach=2032/08/08.87@0.10AU). NEODyS PS=−0.58.
• JPL 21 (Nov 1): 23 day arc NEODyS = 2.20e-4@1:4,550. Horizons Nominal = 0.06AU (closest approach=2032-Sep-04@0.03AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.20AU (closest approach=2032/08/06@0.13AU). NEODyS PS=−0.60.
• JPL 24 (Nov 2): 21 day arc (2013-10-12 to 2013-11-02) Sentry = 1:43,000 / NEODyS = 1:15,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.67AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-12@0.50AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.36AU (closest approach=2032/07/27@0.26AU). NEODyS PS=−1.14.
• JPL 25 (Nov 2): 21 day arc (2013-10-12 to 2013-11-02) Sentry = 1:53,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.62AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-14@0.45AU)
• JPL 26 (Nov 3): 21 day arc Sentry = 1:132,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.53AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-18@0.38AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.41AU (closest approach=2032/07/24@0.29AU).
• JPL 28 (Nov 3): 21 day arc Sentry = 1:345,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.57AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-16@0.42AU).
• JPL 29 (Nov 4): 22 day arc Sentry = 1:20,833,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.65AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-13@0.48AU).
• JPL 30 (Nov 5): 22 day arc Sentry = 1:28,571,000 / NEODyS = 1:11,962,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.66AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-12@0.49AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.51AU (closest approach=2032/07/19@0.37AU). NEODyS PS=−4.03.
• JPL 31 (Nov 7): 26 day arc Sentry = 1:169,492,000 / NEODyS = 1:5,495,000. Horizons Nominal = 0.59AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-15@0.43AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.59AU (closest approach=2032/07/16@0.43AU). NEODyS PS=−3.69.
• JPL 32 (Nov 8): 27 day arc Sentry = REMOVED / NEODyS = REMOVED. Horizons Nominal = 0.58AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-16@0.43AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.50AU (closest approach=2032/07/20@0.36AU).
• JPL 33 (Nov 9): 27 day arc Horizons Nominal = 0.61AU (closest approach=2032-Jul-15@0.45AU) / NEODyS Nominal = 0.54AU (closest approach=2032/07/18@0.39AU).

(The odds of an impact are only going up because the uncertainty regions containing Earth and the asteroid in August 2032 are getting smaller. Once Earth is no longer inside of the asteroid's uncertainty region the odds will be zero.) -- Kheider (talk) 18:49, 18 October 2013 (UTC)

• It seems blindly optimistic to assume that as there are more observations the chances of an impact can only decrease. Additional observations might rule out an impact, but how can anyone be sure they will not trend toward increasing chances of an impact? Edison (talk) 00:15, 22 October 2013 (UTC)

Given that the nominal orbit is starting to settle down with the closest approach being in the ballpark of 0.5AU from Earth on 26 August 2013, there is little reason to assume that future projections will exceed 1:3800. But you are correct, it is not certain. If the odds are ever greater than 1:3800 the article can then be updated accordingly. The odds of an impact are a function of the uncertainty region and how close Earth is to the nominal orbit of the asteroid. -- Kheider (talk) 01:08, 22 October 2013 (UTC)

As the closest predicted approach drops to .06AU per observations of 31 Oct 2013. Ah well, a wise old psych professor and WW2 veteran said "Close only counts for horse shoes and hand grenades." Edison (talk) 03:12, 1 November 2013 (UTC)

archive.is version

The better referenced 10 February 2014 archive.is version can be seen here. -- Kheider (talk) 07:44, 26 June 2014 (UTC)

Close miss?

0.76 AU isn't a close miss! We know hundreds of bigger asteroids coming much closer all the time. --77.8.114.255 (talk) 00:44, 19 October 2014 (UTC)

When the asteroid was first discovered the orbit was not well enough constrained to know the close approach distance in 2032. Now that we have a 108 day observation arc, the orbit is well constrained. -- Kheider (talk) 19:11, 19 October 2014 (UTC)

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Discovered by CrAO or discovered by Borisov?

The lede states the following:

The asteroid was discovered on October 12, 2013 by the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory using images dating back to October 8, 2013. It was first observed by Ukrainian amateur astronomer Gennadiy Borisov with a custom 0.2-meter (7.9 in) telescope.

References

Which is somewhat confusing. Wouldn't it be better to say that "the asteroid was discovered by Gennadiy Borisov at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory"?

Also, was it really discovered at CrAO? It is my understanding that Borisov makes his discoveries in his spare time. Was the entry in the referenced MPC page simply a matter of convenience (Borisov lives in Nauchnyy, where CrAO is located), or was CrAO actually involved in measuring some important parameters or reporting the find? I'm not an astronomer so I don't know how this works. — UnladenSwallow (talk) 18:58, 19 September 2019 (UTC)

The MPEC puts a * next to the discovery observation and states that G. Borisov was the observer. With new discoveries precovery images are important. When I wrote this article, Borisov was just a non-notable astronomer. -- Kheider (talk) 19:12, 19 September 2019 (UTC)

I'm sorry, but I don't quite get it. The image of 2013 TV₁₃₅ was captured by Borisov using one of his personal custom-built telescopes co-located at the Crimean Astronomical Station of the Sternberg Astronomical Institute. Specifically, Borisov's telescopes are located on a patch of land right next to CAS's building housing a ZEISS-600 telescope, which Borisov is tasked with servicing, but does not use for observations. The building has a tiny room from where Borisov remotely controls his telescopes. What CrAO had got to do with all this? (Remember, CrAO ≠ CAS. Different organizations located in the same town.) Are you saying that Borisov did not see the asteroid in his October 8 images and it was later discovered (precovered) by CrAO on October 12? Then why is Borisov listed as "observer" by MPC at all? I think that MPC simply lumps together CrAO, CAS, and Borisov's personal observatory under a single "095 Crimea-Nauchnij" designation. So Borisov is the only discoverer, and CrAO has nothing to do with it. — UnladenSwallow (talk) 23:35, 19 September 2019 (UTC)

What the MPEC says is that K13TD5V (2013 TV135) was first observed by G. Borisov at "095 Crimea-Nauchnij" on an image from 2013 10 12. I assume they use the same observatory code since they are basically on the same land. The MPEC links 095 to CrAO. -- Kheider (talk) 00:42, 20 September 2019 (UTC)

Thank you! Now I see what the problem is. By linking "Crimea-Nauchnij" to CrAO's website, MPEC misrepresents Borisov's personal observatory (MARGO) and CAS observatory as "CrAO". They should remove the link from "Crimea-Nauchnij" altogether. (Theoretically, they could introduce separate numeric codes for MARGO and CAS, but that would require going back and fixing everything they listed as 095, which is impractical.) I am removing the mention of CrAO from the article because we know for a fact that Borisov never worked there (neither as an astronomer, nor as an engineer), so CrAO has nothing to do at all with 2013 TV₁₃₅. — UnladenSwallow (talk) 02:27, 20 September 2019 (UTC)